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Why the Home Controls Market Is Forecast to Eclipse $62B by 2024

Imperial Capital’s latest “Premises Control and Automation” report projects strong growth in the years ahead, but market evolution will present significant challenges for some security pros.

Imperial Capital just released a newly updated premises control and automation outlook that covers the period 2017-2024. The report’s authors, Saliq Khan and Jeff Kessler, illuminate a marketplace set on a decidedly upward trajectory full of technical and competitive complexities.

To flourish in the years ahead, installing security contractors, manufacturers and service providers will be forced to continually amend business models and portfolios that conform to consumer lifestyles and newfound technological possibilities. While growth opportunities are projected to extend well beyond the industry’s long-held 20% traditional penetration mark, the reality is physical security by itself is no longer a winning proposition.

The authors estimate the total available U.S. market for fee-based security systems and related devices at nearly 50 million homes by the end of 2024. That is more than double the estimated 22.7 million homes in 2017. The outlook cites revenue potential to reach $62 billion by the end of 2024, compared with an estimated $26 billion by year-end 2017. However, the revenue potential for the market may be higher or lower, depending on how many newly developed apps are being sold, while the industry addresses the commoditization pressures, according to the report.

The ability to remotely control security, lighting, A/V and other connected devices is likely to further demand for premise control and automation solutions through the end of 2020, according to the report. The authors also posit the industry is likely to experience continued consolidation, “with competitors continuing to fall by the wayside, while we also believe it is possible that those DIY solution providers that have a sizable customer following and a recognizable brand could be sold to strategic buyers or private equity firms.”

In all the disruption and expected mass adoption of IoT-enabled devices and services — for both residential and commercial applications — consider this from the report: technology and consumer satisfaction will increasingly define the market, enabling more than 12,000 independent security dealers in the U.S. to participate in the smart home at some level.

To view charts and read more insights from the outlook, check out this image gallery.

About the Author

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Although Bosch’s name is quite familiar to those in the security industry, his previous experience has been in daily newspaper journalism. Prior to joining SECURITY SALES & INTEGRATION in 2006, he spent 15 years with the Los Angeles Times, where he performed a wide assortment of editorial responsibilities, including feature and metro department assignments as well as content producing for latimes.com. Bosch is a graduate of California State University, Fresno with a degree in Mass Communication & Journalism. In 2007, he successfully completed the National Burglar and Fire Alarm Association’s National Training School coursework to become a Certified Level I Alarm Technician.

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