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Nonresidential Building Projects Forecast Fades in February

The latest forecast from Dodge Data & Analytics suggests the growth in construction activity will moderate over the coming year.

NEW YORK — Nonresidential building projects in planning faltered in February, according to the latest Dodge Momentum Index.

The Momentum Index lost 4.4% in February, falling to 146.9 (2000=100) from the revised January reading of 153.6. Issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, the index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.

Both components of the Momentum Index lost steam in February — the institutional component moved 5.9% lower, while the commercial component dropped 3.4%.

Since November, the Momentum Index has re-established a sawtooth pattern that’s often been present in recent years, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. It has also become clear that the average level of activity has downshifted slightly since the summer of 2018.

From April through August last year, the average level of the Momentum Index was 158.6, while from September through the latest month the average is 150.3 — a decline of 5.2%. This shift continues to suggest that the growth in construction activity will moderate over the coming year.

In February, nine projects each with a value of $100 million or more entered planning. The leading commercial building projects were the $200 million Keurig/Dr. Pepper office project in Frisco, Texas, and a $200 million mixed-use development in San Jose, Calif.

The leading institutional building projects were the $300 million VCU Health Children’s Hospital in Richmond, Va., and the $187 million Wolfson Children’s Critical Care Tower in Jacksonville, Fla.

Founded 2006, Dodge Data & Analytics is a leading provider of analytics and software-based workflow integration solutions for the construction industry.

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