Economist Forecasts Mixed Bag for Construction Growth in 2018
The latest Dodge Outlook Report predicts a construction deceleration for next year, along with some growth in particular project types.
Single family housing is forecast to increase 9% in dollars, corresponding to a 7% increase in units to 850,000, according to the 2018 Dodge Outlook Report.
CHICAGO — The commercial and institutional construction sectors are forecast to grow in 2018, while multifamily building is expected to decline, according to Dodge Data & Analytics’ latest 2018 outlook report.
Robert Murray, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, predicts that total U.S. construction starts for 2018 will climb 3% to $765 billion.
“The U.S. construction industry has moved into a mature stage of expansion,” Murray states in an announcement. “After rising 11% to 13% per year from 2012 through 2015, total construction starts advanced a more subdued 5% in 2016. An important question entering 2017 was whether the construction industry had the potential for further expansion. Several project types, including multifamily housing and hotels, have pulled back from their 2016 levels, but the current year has seen continued growth by single family housing, office buildings, and warehouses.”
Murray presented the outlook Nov. 2 at the 79th annual Outlook Executive Conference in Chicago. He reports the institutional segment of nonresidential building has been relatively strong, led especially by transportation terminal projects in combination with gains for schools and healthcare facilities.
“As for public works, the specifics of a $1 trillion infrastructure program by the Trump Administration have yet to materialize, so activity continues to hover around basically the plateau for construction starts reached a couple of years ago,” he says. “Total construction starts in 2017 are estimated to climb 4% to $746 billion.”
Several positive factors suggest the construction expansion will continue to proceed in 2018. The U.S. economy is anticipated to see moderate job growth, plus long-term interest rates may see some upward movement but not substantially. While market fundamentals for commercial real estate won’t be quite as strong as this year, funding support for construction will continue to come from state and local bond measures.
“Two areas of uncertainty relate to whether tax reform and a federal infrastructure program get passed, with their potential to lift investment. Overall, the year 2018 is likely to show some construction project types register gains while other project types settle back, with the end result being a 3% increase for total construction starts,” Murray states. “By major sector, gains are predicted for residential building, up 4%; and nonresidential building, up 2%; while nonbuilding construction stabilizes after two years of decline.”
The 2018 Dodge Construction Outlook forecasts the following segments:
- Single family housing will rise 9% in dollars, corresponding to a 7% increase in units to 850,000 (Dodge basis). Continued employment growth has eased some of the caution shown by potential homebuyers, while older Millennials in their 30s are helping to lift demand for single family housing. A modest boost will also come from rebuilding efforts in Texas and Florida after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
- Multifamily housing will retreat 8% in dollars and 11% in units to 425,000 (Dodge basis). This project type appears to have peaked in 2016, helped by widespread growth across major metropolitan markets. That strength has begun to wane in 2017, given slight deterioration in market fundamentals (rent growth, occupancies) and a more cautious bank lending stance.
- Commercial building will increase 2%, following a 3% gain in 2017, and continuing to decelerate after the sharp 21% hike back in 2016. Office construction should see further growth in 2018, helped by broad development efforts in downtown markets, and warehouse construction is supported by greater demand arising from e-commerce. However, store construction will remain weak, and hotel construction will continue to pull back from its 2016 peak.
- Institutional building will advance 3%, maintaining its upward track after this year’s 14% jump. Educational facilities should see more substantial growth next year, lifted by the passage of recent school construction bond measures. The robust volume of transportation terminal projects in 2017 may not be repeated in 2018, but activity should stay at a high level.
- Manufacturing plant construction will recede 1% in dollar terms, after surging 27% this year due to the start of several massive petrochemical projects. Next year should still see moderate growth for manufacturing plants in square footage terms.
- Public works construction will improve 3%, slightly more than the 1% growth in 2017. Highways and bridges should be helped as federal funding rises to the levels called for by the FAST Act, while the environmental categories will partly reflect reconstruction efforts related to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Additional benefit may come from the infrastructure program proposed by the Trump Administration, should it achieve passage in some form.
- Electric utilities and gas plants will drop 13%, falling for the third year in a row after the exceptional amount reported in 2015. Power plant construction starts will ease back as new generating capacity comes on line.
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About the Author
Rodney Bosch, Senior Editor
Although Bosch’s name is quite familiar to those in the security industry, his previous experience has been in daily newspaper journalism. Prior to joining SECURITY SALES & INTEGRATION in 2006, he spent 15 years with the Los Angeles Times, where he performed a wide assortment of editorial responsibilities, including feature and metro department assignments as well as content producing for latimes.com. Bosch is a graduate of California State University, Fresno with a degree in Mass Communication & Journalism. In 2007, he successfully completed the National Burglar and Fire Alarm Association’s National Training School coursework to become a Certified Level I Alarm Technician.
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