Why the Home Controls Market Is Forecast to Eclipse $62B by 2024

The report’s authors suggest it is becoming increasingly apparent that the acceleration of adoption of premises control and alarm monitoring solutions will be led by cable/telcos, such as Comcast Xfinity. The report’s authors estimate the multi-system operators (MSOs) will increase their market share from an estimated 9% (or 2 million homes) by year-end 2017 to 19% (or 6.2 million homes) by year-end 2020, and to 27% (or 13.5 million homes) by year-end 2024.

MSOs have been challenged to leverage their cable customers into adding home security to their current package. However, MSOs are starting to realize the importance of providing highly specialized and differentiated and customer service and experience to home security customers at a higher level than they have provided to cable or telephone customers.

While Verizon and its DIY offerings were unsuccessful in this endeavor (and AT&T may follow), Comcast’s Xfinity Home appears to be successful in leveraging a very large customer base. Comcast aims to provide “good enough” home security packages that help create a large customer base with a high RMR business model.

Imperial Capital estimates the average revenue per user (ARPU) for the MSO is roughly $32.76 at year-end 2017 and could increase to $36.50 by year-end 2020 and to $44.36 by year-end 2024. If the MSOs can improve their penetration and upsell the customers, we estimate new ARPU could reach as high as $50 by yearend 2024.